El Niño in decline but impacting global weather, ~50% chance of La Niña
The current near-record El Niño event appears on the wane, with conditions attributed to the phenomenon said to be in decline, but its effects set to be felt for some time to come, with insurance and reinsurance firms now turning their heads to the possible development of La Niña conditions. The forecasts last year were correct, that the 2015/16 El Niño would be stronger and last longer into 2016 than had initially been expected. Weather and climatic events such as the recent tropical moisture plumes causing near-record rainfall levels in California and the flooding experienced in the U.S. southern states in recent days are testament to the effects of the El Niño event.
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